Simulating And Predicting Solar Cycles Using A Flux-transport Dynamo

Details Simulating And Predicting Solar Cycles Using A Flux-transport Dynamo Simulating And Predicting Solar Cycles Using A Flux-transport Dynamo

Jun 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006aas...208.6507d&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society Meeting 208, #65.07; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.145

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

We construct a predictive tool based on a Babcock-Leighton type flux-transport dynamo model of solar cycle, run the model by updating the surface magnetic source using old cycles' data since cycle 12, and show that the model can correctly simulate the relative peaks of cycles 16 through 23. The simulations use the first 4 cycles to load the meridional circulation conveyor belt to create the Sun's memory about its past magnetic fields. Extending the simulation into the future we predict that cycle 24 will be 30-50% stronger than current cycle 23. These simulations and predictions are robust for a wide range of convection zone diffusivity values. Analyzing the evolution of magnetic field patterns over a full magnetic cycle, we show that the key to success of our prediction model lies in the formation of a 'seed' for producing cycle n from the combination of latitudinal poloidal fields at high latitudes from past three cycles, n-1, n-2 and n-3, instead of previous cycle's polar fields. These results have many implications for both solar and stellar dynamo modeling. The quality of our simulations and predictions implies that the flux-transport models must contain most of the important physical processes acting in the solar dynamo.

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