Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004adspr..33.1524i&link_type=abstract
Advances in Space Research, Volume 33, Issue 9, p. 1524-1533.
Mathematics
Probability
7
Orbital Evolution, Jupiter-Family Comets, Comet And Asteroid Hazard, Terrestrial Planets
Scientific paper
We estimated the rate of comet and asteroid collisions with the terrestrial planets by calculating the orbits of 13,000 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) and 1300 resonant asteroids and computing the probabilities of collisions based on random-phase approximations and the orbital elements sampled with a 500 years step. The Bulirsh-Stoer and a symplectic orbit integrator gave similar results for orbital evolution, but may give different collision probabilities with the Sun. A small fraction of former JCOs reached orbits with aphelia inside Jupiter's orbit and some reached Apollo orbits with semi-major axes less than 2 AU, Aten orbits and inner-Earth orbits (with aphelia less than 0.983 AU) and remained there for millions of years. Though less than 0.1% of the total, these objects were responsible for most of the collision probability of former JCOs with Earth and Venus. We conclude that a significant fraction of near-Earth objects could be extinct comets that came from the trans-Neptunian region or most of such comets disintegrated during their motion in near-Earth object orbits.
Ipatov Sergei I.
Mather John C.
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