Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Details Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Jun 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3611710p&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 11, CiteID L11710

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3

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)

Scientific paper

In spite of considerable efforts, long-range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is still a challenge for both statistical and dynamical tools. We highlight the winter-to-spring Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation as a predictor for the ISMR. A PNA-related index is proposed that is highly correlated with the following summer precipitation over India and is also a precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over recent decades. The PNA index compares well with other predictors used in operational statistical models for ISMR prediction. A multiple linear regression scheme is tested with a cross-validation hindcast approach and confirms the added value of our predictor, at least over the period 1958-2005. Nevertheless, the predictor shows less skill over the first half of the 20th century. Possible physical mechanisms of this teleconnection are also briefly discussed and could involve both a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover pathway.

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