Bayes Changepoint Algorithms for Catching Gamma-Ray Bursts in Near Real Time

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Real-time multi-wavelength detections (such as the optical detection of GRB 990123) depend on broadcasts of the most accurate possible gamma-ray positions in the shortest amount of time. In turn, these rely crucially on good choices of gamma-ray burst start and end time to get the best signal-to-noise ratio (hence the smallest error-box). Current methods to determine these are either fast, automatic, and not very robust (BACODINE: difference from a running average; COMPTEL RBR: negative double difference) or slow and done by eye (BATSE - RBR). Scargle (1998) pointed out how natural the changepoint concept is adapted to any Poisson process, as in GRB light-curves with drastically varying time-structures built up one at a time from piece-wise constant components. The `change-points' are the times at which these components switch, and are estimated by a straightforward Bayesian likelihood calculation. (Changepoints are one of a number of aproaches well-known to statisticians but not to astronomers.) Here we apply double change-points with both piece-wise constant and exponential models to find GRB start and end times in CGRO GRB data. Both are more robust than previous metods especially for very slowly or rapidly rising bursts, or with time-variable background.

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