Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2000
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000aas...19712804h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, 197th AAS Meeting, #128.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 33, p.711
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Simulations are presented of the expected catch of extra-solar planets in searches using wide-field CCD cameras to detect planets that transit in front of their parent stars. Two cases highlighted are ESA's Eddington mission, an 0.6 square-meter space telescope with 3-degree field of view, and an inexpensive ground-based WASP camera with 6cm aperture and 9-degree field of view. The adopted methodology assumes plausible probability functions for planet radius and orbit size for each star mass, and a galactic model for the distribution of stars. A Monte Carlo simulation of the planet search experiment then determines the numbers and properties of the transiting planets that will be detected, accounting for observational noise, incomplete time sampling, and false alarm probabilities. In 3 months, a WASP camera should find dozens of "Hot Jupiters" transiting 6-15 mag 0.5-2 solar-mass stars. The 3-year Eddington mission should find tens of thousands of planets transiting 0.08-2 solar-mass stars, including thousands of multi-planet systems, hundreds of small planets comparable in size to Earth, and hundreds of planets in the "habitable" (liquid water) zone.
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