Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009aas...21340204k&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #213, #402.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.191
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The orbital parameters of extra-solar planets have a significant impact on the probability that the planet will transit the host star. This has been demonstrated by the transit detection of HD 17156b whose favourable eccentricity and argument of periastron dramatically increased its transit likelihood. We present a study which provides a quantitative analysis of how these two orbital parameters affect the geometric transit probability as a function of period. Further, we apply these results to known radial velocity planets and show that there are unexpectedly high transit probabilities for planets at relatively long periods. For a photometric monitoring campaign which aims to determine if the planet indeed transits, we calculate the expected transiting planet yield and the significance of a potential null result, as well as the subsequent constraints that may be applied to orbital parameters. We present early results of an observing campaign being undertaken to detect transits of known southern radial velocity planets.
Kane Stephen R.
von Braun Kaspar
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