Exosolar Planet Searches: A Shot in the Dark?

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

This work introduces a Monte Carlo method to determine the optimal revisit times for searches involving direct observation for extrasolar planets. Every observation of a target star contains information, regardless of the detection. This information is used to select revisit intervals where the probability of observing a planet is maximized. The results demonstrate that given an initial observation where a planet is not detected, there is a single optimal revisit time where the probability of detection is significantly higher than it would be for random revisit intervals. The model also shows an optimum revisit time in the case of a planetary detection.

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