Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit

Details Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit

Jun 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010spwea...806007t&link_type=abstract

Space Weather, Volume 8, Issue 6, CiteID S06007

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

2

Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), Space Weather: Forecasting (1922, 2722), Space Weather: Models

Scientific paper

It is very important, both for research and forecasting application, to be aware of uncertainty estimation of a scientific model, i.e., to know how model performance depends on the uncertainty in the input parameters. Scientific models are becoming more important as tools for space weather operators' applications and for space weather forecasting. It is essential that operational users, forecasters, model developers, and the scientific community are aware of model capabilities and limitations. In our previous study we validated the performance of the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination in simulating the propagation of 14 events of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the L1 point using the cone model approach for halo CMEs. In this short report we present the results of the uncertainty estimation for the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination studying the dependence of the arrival time of the CME shock and the magnitude of the CME impact on the magnetosphere on the uncertainty in the CME input parameters using three events from the previously reported 14 event list.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1598225