Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Apr 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009iaus..259..235k&link_type=abstract
Cosmic Magnetic Fields: From Planets, to Stars and Galaxies, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, IAU Symposium,
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
Sun: Activity, Magnetic Fields, Sunspots
Scientific paper
We consider solar magnetic activity in the context of sunspot number variations, as a result of a non-linear oscillatory dynamo process. The apparent chaotic behavior of the 11-year sunspot cycles and undefined errors of observations create uncertainties for predicting the strength and duration of the cycles. Uncertainties in dynamo model parameters create additional difficulties for the forecasting. Modern data assimilation methods allow us to assimilate the observational data into the models for possible efficient and accurate estimations of the physical properties, which cannot be observed directly, such as the internal magnetic fields and helicity. We apply the Ensemble Kalman Filter method to a low-order non-linear dynamo model, which takes into account variations of the turbulent magnetic helicity and reproduces basic characteristics of the solar cycles. We investigate the predictive capabilities of this approach, and present test results for prediction of the previous cycles and a forecast of the next solar cycle 24.
Kitiashvili Irina N.
Kosovichev Alexander G.
No associations
LandOfFree
Prediction of solar magnetic cycles by a data assimilation method does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Prediction of solar magnetic cycles by a data assimilation method, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of solar magnetic cycles by a data assimilation method will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1522388