Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections That Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

Details Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections That Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections That Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh51c1690t&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH51C-1690

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7974] Space Weather / Solar Effects

Scientific paper

The largest geomagnetic storms are caused by the solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In our previous paper (Taktakishvili et al., [2009]) we reported the results of modeling 14 selected well observed strong halo CME events using the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination. In that study the cone model input parameters were obtained from white-light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al [ 2004 ]. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. Recently Pulkkinen et al., [2009] developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. This approach combines standard image processing techniques and a novel inversion routine to derive the cone parameters. The present work extends our previous studies by addressing more CME events. The approach in this paper is different from our previous study: we started from addressing 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA/ENLIL cone model. This approach is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations were compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA/ENLIL model combination with coronograph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of "geo-effective" CME events as well. References: Taktakishvili, A., M. Kuznetsova, P. Macneice, M. Hesse, L. Rastaetter, A. Pulkkinen, A. Chulaki and D. Odstrci (2009), Validation of the coronal mass ejection predictions at the Earth orbit estimated by ENLIL heliosphere cone model, Space Weather,7, S03004,doi10.1029/2008SW000448. Xie, H., L. Ofman, and G. Lawrence (2004), Cone model for halo CMEs: Application to space weather forecasting, J. Geophys. Res.,109, A03109, doi:10.1029/2003JA010226. Pulkkinen A., T. Oates, A. Taktakishvili, (2009), Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters, Solar Physics, DOI:10.1007/s11207-009-9473-z.

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