Other
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufm.p51b1420l&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #P51B-1420
Other
[0325] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Evolution Of The Atmosphere, [5405] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Atmospheres, [5416] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Glaciation, [6225] Planetary Sciences: Solar System Objects / Mars
Scientific paper
Mars’ orbit and surface temperature over time are predicted from the formation of the solar system by a quantitative model. The model predicts that the transition from liquid water to ice (273K) occurred at about 3.4-3.8 billion years (Byr) before the present time, which is in excellent agreement with independent experimental estimates between 2.9 - 3.4 Byr. The present work is an extension of the previously reported model which correlates orbital changes of planetary orbits with solar mass loss by radiation and solar wind.(1) The model calculates that Mars’ orbit increased from 198 at its formation to presently 228 million km. The change of Mars’ temperature is determined by the change of solar radiative irradiation with time and distance,(2) starting with Mars’ presently highest reported sustained surface temperature. Other effects may have extended higher Mars surface temperatures closer to the present. These could not be included in the modeling since these effects have not yet been quantified or are erratic. Examples are Mars’ core cooling rate after formation, effects of hothouse gases, like carbon dioxide and water vapor, and any erratic variations in solar radiation intensity. References: 1. I. H. Leubner, Stability of planetary Orbits, AGU 2006 Fall Meeting 2. I. H. Leubner, Earth Orbit, Period, Temperature - Past and Future, AGU 2007 Fall Meeting
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