Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufm.b51b0377l&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #B51B-0377
Mathematics
Logic
0439 Ecosystems, Structure And Dynamics (4815), 0466 Modeling
Scientific paper
Harvesting strategies and policies for Acadian forest in Nova Scotia, Canada, presently are set using Decision Support Models (DSMs) that aim to maximize the long-term (>100y) value of forests through decisions implemented over short time horizons (5-80 years). However, DSMs typically are aspatial, lack ecological processes and do not treat erosion, so the long-term (>100y) emergent impacts of the prescribed forestry decisions on erosion and vegetation in Acadian forests remain poorly known. To better understand these impacts, we created an equation-based model that simulates the evolution of a ≥4 km2 forest in time steps of 1 y and at a spatial resolution of 3 m2, the footprint of a single mature tree. The model combines 1) ecological processes of recruitment, competition, and mortality; 2) geomorphic processes of hillslope erosion; 3) anthropic processes of tree harvesting, replanting, and road construction under constraints imposed by regulations and cost/benefit ratio. The model uses digital elevation models, parameters (where available), and calibration (where measurements are not available) for conditions presently found in central Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The model is unique because it 1) deals with the impacts of harvesting on an Acadian forest; and 2) vegetation and erosion are coupled. The model was tested by comparing the species-specific biomass of long-term (40 y) forest plot data to simulated results. At the spatial scale of individual 1 ha plots, model predictions presently account for approximately 50% of observed biomass changes through time, but predictions are hampered by the effects of serendipitous "random" events such as single tree windfall. Harvesting increases the cumulative erosion over 3000 years by 240% when compared to an old growth forest and significantly suppresses the growth of Balsam Fir and Sugar Maple. We discuss further tests of the model, and how it might be used to investigate the long-term sustainability of the recommendations made by DSMs and to better understand the relationship between vegetation, erosion, and forest management strategies.
Luus K. A.
Plug L. J.
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