Inverse Problems for Great Solar Energetic Particle Event: Monitoring by Network Stations and Forecasting

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It is well known that energy spectrum of solar energetic particles (SEP), observed by ground-based neutron monitors (NM) and muon telescopes (in the high energy region; the transfer to the space from the ground observations is made by the method of coupling functions) and by detectors on satellites and space-probes (in small energy region), is significantly changed with time (usually from very hard at the beginning of event to very soft at the end of event). The observed spectrum of SEP and its change with time are determined by three main parameters: energy spectrum in source, time of ejection and propagation mode. In the past we considered the first step for forecasting of radiation hazard - the simple isotropic mode of SEP propagation in the interplanetary space. It was shown that on the basis of observational data at several moments of time there could be solved the inverse problem and determined energy spectrum in source, time of ejection and diffusion coefficient in dependence on energy and distance from the Sun. Here we consider the inverse problem for the complicated case, namely, the mode of anisotropic diffusion and kinetic approach. We show that in this case the inverse problem can also be solved, but there is need in neutron monitor data at least from several locations on the Earth. We show that in this case the solution of inverse problem starts to work well sufficiently earlier than solution for isotropic diffusion, but after 20-25 minutes both solutions give about the same results. It is important that obtained results and reality of used model can be controlled by independent data on SEP energy spectrum in other moments of time (is not used at solving of inverse problem). On the basis of obtained results one can estimate the total release energy in the SEP event and radiation environment in the inner heliosphere, the magnetosphere and atmosphere of the Earth during SEP event.

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