Improved Empirical CME Arrival Time Prediction Model

Details Improved Empirical CME Arrival Time Prediction Model Improved Empirical CME Arrival Time Prediction Model

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsh53b0324x&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SH53B-0324

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7519 Flares, 7536 Solar Activity Cycle (2162)

Scientific paper

We have successfully developed an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (Xie et al. 2003). We will apply this new method to improve the existing empirical space weather forecasting models (e.g., Gopalswamy et al., 2001). Gopalswamy et al. (2001) presented an empirical model to provide the predication of CME transit time from the Sun to the Earth. The model is in good agreement with the observations for high-speed CMEs. However, the agreement is not good for low-speed events. One of possible reasons may be due to errors caused by the significant scatter of CME prjection speeds used in the model. Using our new method can determine the actual speed of CMEs and thus reduce the errors and improve the model.

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