Investigation of the Accuracy of Ionospheric Models at Mid-Latitudes: Examining Ionospheric Metrics

Details Investigation of the Accuracy of Ionospheric Models at Mid-Latitudes: Examining Ionospheric Metrics Investigation of the Accuracy of Ionospheric Models at Mid-Latitudes: Examining Ionospheric Metrics

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa51b0255e&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA51B-0255

Other

2443 Midlatitude Ionosphere, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2467 Plasma Temperature And Density, 2494 Instruments And Techniques, 2499 General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

The electron density specification of the ionosphere is the key parameter supporting many operational products. To assess the accuracy of tools based on space weather models of the ionosphere one must know the accuracy of the underlining models. We are developing a software/database package to assess the accuracy of ionospheric models. The package will be placed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Initial focus is on the mid-latitude ionosphere as observed by the Arecibo Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR). This ISR database has extensive ionospheric coverage over variability in solar cycle, season, local time, and geomagnetic activity. The assessments of models need to be based on careful constructed metric definitions to compare the model specifications with the ISR "ground truth." Our goals for the assessment tool are (1) to provide reliable, metric assessment of models for users represented by agencies of the Nation Space Weather Program and, (2) to provide the scientific community with an assessment of conditions when models are adequate and inadequate. The second implementation plan of the NSWP (2000) has established the priority of metrics and has specified these metrics. We begin with the NSWP ionospheric metrics as a reasonable starting place, but examine other strategies to assess ionosphere weather specifications through several new metric definitions for the F region. We present our initial studies on the weaknesses and benefits of several different metric definitions for F region profile accuracy. Three models will be use in the metric assessment (1) the physics-based Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM), (2) the physics-based and Coupled Thermospheric-Ionospheric-Plasmasphere-electrodynamics Model (CTIPe), and (3) the empirical International Reference Model (IRI). Central to creating reliable metric results is the need to quantify the quality and accuracy of the "ground truth" ISR database. Metric issues associated with ISR operational modes, data gaps, instrument noise, and representation errors will be addressed using an initial demonstration period, January 24 to 28, 1990.

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