Prediction of solar active longitudes

Details Prediction of solar active longitudes Prediction of solar active longitudes

Jun 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008a%26a...484..523z&link_type=abstract

Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 484, Issue 2, 2008, pp.523-527

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

4

Sun: Activity, Sun: Magnetic Fields

Scientific paper

Context: After considering the solar surface differential rotation, it was found that two persistent active longitudes of sunspots and of solar X-ray flares, separated by about 180 degrees, exist on the sun. Aims: According to the migration rule of the active longitudes on the Sun, we predict the central positions of the solar active longitudes in Carrington frame. Methods: The migration, M, of an active longitude on the kth day of the ith Carrington rotation in Carrington frame can be described as M =Tcsum_i=N0N_i-1 (Ω_i-Ω_c)+k(Ω_i-Ω_c), where Ωi (sidereal) is the angular velocity of the active longitude in the ith Carrington rotation, Ωc (sidereal), the angular velocity of Carrington frame, and T_c, the Carrington rotation period. Solar active longitudes rotate in agreement with solar surface differential rotation law, which can be simply described as Ωi = Ω0 - {B} sin2<φi >, where Ω0 is the equatorial angular velocity, B the differential rotation rate, and φ_i, the mean latitude of solar activity in the ith rotation. Parameters, Ω0 and B, can be obtained from observations. If the latitude in the (i+1)th rotation is approximately that of the ith rotation, the expected angular velocity of an active longitude in the (i+1)th rotation can be described as Ω(i+1)p = Ω0 - {B} sin2<φi >. The central positions of active longitude, Λ(i+1)kp, can be expected as well. Results: We predict active longitudes of solar X-ray flares qualitatively between 1997-2006. Active longitudes with half width of 20°-30° cover 80% of C-flares during the minimum of solar activities and X-flares during the maximum. Conclusions: Solar active longitudes can be predicted by differential rotation parameters and latitude of solar activity.

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