Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

Details Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

Apr 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008ap%26ss.314...45h&link_type=abstract

Astrophysics and Space Science, Volume 314, Issue 1-3, pp. 45-49

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

17

Sunspots, Solar Cycle, Prediction

Scientific paper

In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during the period 2008.57±0.17 ( i.e., around May-September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030-2042 AD), 27 (2042-2054 AD), 34 (2118-2127 AD), 37 (2152-2163 AD) and 38 (2163-2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089-2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1421886