Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
May 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agusmsp51c..04p&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2008, abstract #SP51C-04
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7519 Flares, 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7529 Photosphere, 7924 Forecasting (2722)
Scientific paper
We investigate properties of magnetic fields in 110 solar active regions, using the line-of-sight magnetograms observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar Helioshperic Observatory (SOHO). Time profiles of three magnetic parameters are analyzed in detail: (1) unsigned magnetic flux, (2) magnetic helicity change rate, and (3) magnetic helicity accumulation. Our objective is to examine the feasibility of using these parameters for flare forecasting. Previous studies by a number of other authors already demonstrated correlation between the total magnetic flux and the flare productivity. We intend to find if magnetic helicity injection will carry extra weight in predicting flares. In detail, we calculate these quantities during a period of 24 hours after an active region appears or rotates to a position within 0.6 of the solar radius from the apparent disk center. We then compare these parameters with the flare index derived from GOES X-ray observation for the three time windows after the magnetic helicity measurement: 0-12 hours, 12-24 hours, and 24-48 hours. Correlation between magnetic parameters and flare index provides a tool to predict future events. In addition, some case studies are performed to understand the physical process of helicity accumulation in selected flare productive regions.
Park Sahnggi
Wang Hai-Hong
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