Evaluation of Metrics for Ambient Ionospheric Specification

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

The challenge to specify ambient ionospheric electron densities everywhere at all times is motivating a multitude of schemes for combining ionospheric measurements with fluid dynamic models to improve the state of the ionospheric specification art. Measuring progress in this burgeoning field requires institutional commitment to the acquisition of data, computational equipment and operational expertise to run candidate models and to acquire and quality control ground truth data. The final step in both assessing the current state of the art as well as in measuring improvement is the formulation and evaluation of metrics that are both meaningful and tractable. This paper reports the formulation and evaluation of quantitative metrics based on total electron content (TEC). We discuss the choices one faces in trying to define an optimal set of metrics for demonstrating improvement as well as report how well the Parameterized Real Time Ionospheric Specification Model performs. We demonstrate clear improvement over climatology in the specification of TEC by assimilating measurements with the model.

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