Short and medium term sunspot predictions with the P17 method

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Scientific paper

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Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity, Sunspots, Average, Polynomials, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

The monthly average of the relative number of sunspots varies considerably and requires other means to obtain a general determination of sunspot activity. In place of the Zurich method, an exact mathematical procedure is presented for smoothing sunspot curves. With the newly determined monthly averages and formulas for the Waldmeier principles (1955) a simple method is available for calculating useable short and medium term sunspot predictions.

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