Rate of black hole formation in a thermal box

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Astronomical Models, Astrophysics, Black Holes (Astronomy), Thermodynamic Properties, Gravitational Effects, Probability Theory, Rates (Per Time)

Scientific paper

An order of magnitude estimate of the rate at which ordinary thermal fluctuations in a box filled with radiation will produce black holes is derived. The results are compared with a recent calculation (using Euclidean quantum gravity) of Gross, Perry and Yaffe for the rate of formation of black holes at a given equilibrium mass. The starting point is the assumption that the probability of any configuration of the radiation in the box is proportional to exp(S), where S is the entropy of that configuration. Attention is concentrated on a volume V, and the probability that an energy E will be found in this volume is calculated; use is made here of the standard formulas for the entropy of black body radiation, with the self-gravitation of the radiation ignored in calculating the probability.

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