Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits

Details Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits

May 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000spd....3102113b&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD Meeting #31, #021.13; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 32, p.831

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

The lognormal function, a gaussian with log time, can be used to fit the temporal evolution of the observed x-ray flux from solar flares observed with the disk-integrating GOES X-Ray Sensor. Current fits are reproducing the decay of the x-ray flare based on four fitting parameters derived from the rise phase observations. This the first time we have had a method for predicting the decay of the event from the evolution during the rise phase. This approach also provides the potential to predict the time-integrated (and spatially integrated) flux used for prediction of a subsequent particle event before the flare actually begins to decay. It also provides an opportunity to predict when a flare will fall below levels that have significance to human systems such as short-wave radio and over-the-horizon radar. Scientifically, the success of the lognormal function can be viewed as evidence that the release of x-ray emission is based on a series of physical processes for which the output is statistically proportional to the input (for example, collisional excitation and perhaps energy release as an avalanche of multiple reconnection sites). The success of many of the fits raises the question of why some fits are less successful and whether they represent a unique class of event or merely a limitation of the current fitting process.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1350197