Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Nov 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006ihy..worke.112h&link_type=abstract
2nd UN/NASA Workshop on International Heliophysical Year and Basic Space Science. Proceedings of the conference held 27 Novembe
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Deviating from the traditional dynamo mechanism, we model the solar cycle as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), we obtain long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor. For all the solar cycles, we find that amplitude and frequencies of the sinusoidal part remain constant and a very small decay factor from the transient part. These results suggest persistent MHD oscillations that might be compatible with long-period (~ 22 yr) Alfvenic oscillations. The Maunder-minimum type of solar activity, with a period of ~ 100 years, is explained as a result of coupled poloidal and toroidal MHD oscillations. Using the obtained amplitudes, frequencies and the phases of the previous 22 solar cycles, we forecast the amplitude (maximum sunspot number) and period of the present solar cycle (23) that match very well with the observations. The period of the present cycle is found to be 11.73 years. With these encouraging results, we forecast the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important findings are : (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 116 (plus or minus 12), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (plus or minus 11) and, (iii) the sun might experience a very low ( around 60) sunspot activity during 2089- 2100 AD (cycle 31).
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