Forecasting Cycle 24 with a Solar Dynamo Model

Details Forecasting Cycle 24 with a Solar Dynamo Model Forecasting Cycle 24 with a Solar Dynamo Model

Nov 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006ihy..worke..28j&link_type=abstract

2nd UN/NASA Workshop on International Heliophysical Year and Basic Space Science. Proceedings of the conference held 27 Novembe

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Scientific paper

A challenge before solar physicists right now is to forecast the strength of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). Several contrary forecasts have already been made. Most of the forecasts are based on various precursor methods. Only one forecast is based on a dynamo model (Dikpati and Gilman 2006). Since we find some aspects of this work questionable, it is desirable to have another independent forecast based on a dynamo model. We are carrying out an analysis based on our dynamo model, using a methodology different from what was used by Dikpati and Gilman (2006). We shall present the methodology of our approach and, most probably, we shall also have some results by the time of the IHY meeting.

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