Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009dps....41.4307h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #41, #43.07
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The goal of optical surveys of NEOs has been to detect and catalog NEAs years before any one of them is predicted to impact the Earth. The prospect of detecting an NEA on its "death plunge", days or weeks before an impact, has been largely neglected, up until the discovery of 2008 TC3 less than a day before it entered the atmosphere over northern Sudan, dropping meteorites on the desert below (Jenniskens, et al. 2009. Nature 458:485-488). We show that the discovery of such "death plunge” objects before arrival is not unusual even for present surveys, and can become even less so for the next generation surveys such as Pan-STARRS and LSST, but may require some modification of the computer detection pipeline to become truly "rapid response” systems. We find that the flux of incoming impactors is strongly peaked along the solar/antisolar line, thus current sky coverage could potentially detect most of the 50% coming from near the opposition direction. We estimate that, for any object large enough to penetrate the atmosphere and cause substantial ground damage, 30 m diameter or larger, current surveys should provide 5-10 days’ advance warning, and because the repeat coverage of the sky is now about that frequent, we might hope for up to 50% probability of detecting such a body before it arrives. Smaller objects the size of 2008 TC3, still of scientific interest, can be detected about 1 day before arrival by the present surveys. The next generation surveys should be able to detect a 30 m size body weeks or months before arrival, and even "TC3"-sized bodies up to a week out. It seems worthwhile, both for hazard mitigation and scientific studies, to optimize the protocol for such early detection.
Chapman Clark R.
Harris Alan W.
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