Risk Analysis Methodology for Kistler's K-1 Reusable Launch Vehicle

Details Risk Analysis Methodology for Kistler's K-1 Reusable Launch Vehicle Risk Analysis Methodology for Kistler's K-1 Reusable Launch Vehicle

Jan 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002iaf..confe.333b&link_type=abstract

IAF abstracts, 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, The Second World Space Congress, held 10-19 October, 2002 in Houston, TX, USA.,

Mathematics

Logic

Scientific paper

Missile risk analysis methodologies were originally developed in the 1940s as the military experimented with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. As the range of these missiles increased, it became apparent that some means of assessing the risk posed to neighboring populations was necessary to gauge the relative safety of a given test. There were many unknowns at the time, and technology was unpredictable at best. Risk analysis itself was in its infancy. Uncertainties in technology and methodology led to an ongoing bias toward conservative assumptions to adequately bound the problem. This methodology ultimately became the Casualty Expectation Analysis that is used to license Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELVs). A different risk analysis approach was adopted by the commercial aviation industry in the 1950s. At the time, commercial aviation technology was more firmly in hand than ICBM technology. Consequently commercial aviation risk analysis focused more closely on the hardware characteristics. Over the years, this approach has enabled the advantages of technological and safety advances in commercial aviation hardware to manifest themselves in greater capabilities and opportunities. The Boeing 777, for example, received approval for trans-oceanic operations "out of the box," where all previous aircraft were required, at the very least, to demonstrate operations over thousands of hours before being granted such approval. This "out of the box" approval is likely to become standard for all subsequent designs. In short, the commercial aircraft approach to risk analysis created a more flexible environment for industry evolution and growth. In contrast, the continued use of the Casualty Expectation Analysis by the launch industry is likely to hinder industry maturation. It likely will cause any safety and reliability gains incorporated into RLV design to be masked by the conservative assumptions made to "bound the problem." Consequently, for the launch industry to mature, a different approach to RLV risk analysis must be adopted. This paper will present such a methodology for Kistler's K-1 reusable launch vehicle. This paper will develop an approach to risk analysis that represents an amalgamation of the two approaches. This methodology provides flexibility to the launch industry that will enable the regulatory environment to more efficiently accommodate new technologies and approaches. It will also present a derivation of an appropriate assessment threshold that is the equivalent of the currently accepted 30-in-a-million casualty expectation.

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