Other
Scientific paper
Jan 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002iaf..confe.255h&link_type=abstract
IAF abstracts, 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, The Second World Space Congress, held 10-19 October, 2002 in Houston, TX, USA.,
Other
Scientific paper
Design concepts and associated costs were defined for a family of launch vehicles supporting a space tourism endeavor requiring the weekly transport of space tourists to and from an Earth- orbiting facility. The stated business goal for the Space Tourist Transportation System (STTS) element of the proposed commercial space venture was to transport and return ~50 passengers a week to LEO at a cost of roughly 50 K per seat commencing in 2005. This paper summarizes the economic analyses conducted within a broader Systems Engineering study of the postulated concept. Parametric costs were derived using TransCostSystems' (TCS) Cost Engineering Handbook, version 7. Costs were developed as a function of critical system characteristics and selected business scenarios. Various economic strategies directed toward achieving a cost of ~50 K per seat were identified and examined. The study indicated that with a `nominal' business scenario, the initial cost for developing and producing a fully reusable, 2-stage STTS element for a baseline of 46-passengers was about 15.5 B assuming a plausible `commercialization factor' of 0.333. The associated per-seat ticket cost was ~890 K, more than an order of magnitude higher than desired. If the system is enlarged to 104 passengers for better efficiency, the STTS initial cost for the nominal business scenario is increased to about 19.8 B and the per-seat ticket cost is reduced to ~530 K. It was concluded that achieving the desired ticket cost of 50 K per seat is not feasible unless the size of the STTS, and therefore of the entire system, is substantially increased. However, for the specified operational characteristics, it was shown that a system capacity of thousands of passengers per week is required. This implies an extremely high total system development cost, which is not very realistic as a commercial venture, especially in the proposed time frame. These results suggested that ambitious commercial space ventures may have to rely on sizeable government subsidies for economic viability. For example, in this study a hypothesized government subsidy of half the STTS development cost reduced the per-seat ticket cost by about 35%. A number of other business scenarios were also investigated, including `expensing' the entire program initial cost. These analyses showed that even greater government participation, additional aggressive business strategies and/or very low commercialization factors (in the range of 1/9 to 1/30) must be implemented or attained to achieve the desired per-seat cost of 50 K per passenger with reasonably sized vehicles.
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