An experimental determination of meteor daily arrival rate variation

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Meteoroid Concentration, Meteoroids, Occurrences, Polar Regions, Scatter Propagation, Variability, Arrivals, Estimates, Probability Distribution Functions, Solar Cycles, Test Stands

Scientific paper

This report addresses the day to day variability in the meteor arrival rate over a two-month period on the PL/GP High Latitude Meteor Scatter Test Bed and the PL Mid Latitude Meteor Scatter Test bed. In particular, we present evidence that the meteor arrival variability fits an exponential distribution, thus the duration of the system testing period to estimate the meteor arrival variability can be calculated. The arrival rate data from two different sites show that the day-to-day percent change in the arrival rate, at least in the short term, can be modeled as an exponential distribution with a mean of near 10 percent. This suggests meteor scatter communication testing to evaluate performance should be conducted for 9 to 12 days as a minimum to approximate medium term, 30 to 90 days, day-to-day arrival variation.

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