A statistical test for periodicity hypothesis in the crater formation rate

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Periodic Variations, Planetary Craters, Statistical Tests, Comets, Geochronology, Gravitational Effects, Meteoritic Damage

Scientific paper

The hypothesis that the crater formation rate exhibits periodicity is examined by adopting a criterion proposed by Broadbent, which is more stringent than those adopted previously. Data sets of Alvarez and Muller, Rampino and Stothers and of Grieve are tested. The data set of Rampino and Stothers is found to satisfy the adopted criterion for periodicity with period P = 30 Myr. Again, small craters (D less than 10 km) in the data set of Grieve satisfy the criterion even better with P = 30 Myr and 50 Myr, but large craters do not satisfy the criterion. Removal of some of the very young craters (ages less than 8 Myr) yields three significant periods, 16.5, 30, and 50 Myr. Taken at face value, the result would indicate that small impactors hit the earth at intervals of 16.5 Myr and that this period is modulated by the galactic tide.

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