Long-term Trends in the Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices

Details Long-term Trends in the Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices Long-term Trends in the Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices

May 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sh51a02m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SH51A-02

Other

2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

Evidence derived from the record of sunspot number and the aa index suggests that a long-term secular increase is occurring in geomagnetic activity. Presumably this implies similar changes in the solar wind and the Sun since these are the ultimate drivers of magnetic activity. In this paper we investigate whether other indices display these trends as well. Indices we consider include Kp, Ap,PC, AE, AU, AL, Dst, Asym, VBs, and dynamic pressure. To illuminate possible trends we are careful to eliminate effects of known periodicities including diurnal, solar rotation, semiannual, annual, solar cycle, and 22-year. Since many of the indices are dominated by quiet values we search for significant changes in the upper range of the various indices. Our primary tools in this endeavor are the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The K-S test allows one to compare two cdfs determining whether they are different and to calculate how probable such a difference is as a result of chance. Our results will be visualized by plotting a sequence of cdfs at fixed phases of the solar cycle for the duration of the available records.

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