Modeling of CME propagation to the L1 point: comparison to the observations and error bars due to the uncertainty of the cone model parameters.

Details Modeling of CME propagation to the L1 point: comparison to the observations and error bars due to the uncertainty of the cone model parameters. Modeling of CME propagation to the L1 point: comparison to the observations and error bars due to the uncertainty of the cone model parameters.

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsh23b1633t&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SH23B-1633

Computer Science

Performance

2101 Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

We studied the performance of the combined WSA (corona) and ENLIL (heliosphere) models by analyzing different halo CME propagation and evolution to the L1 point and compared the results to ACE observations. We simulated CMEs related to a number of geomagnetic storms and events and used CME arrival time, magnitude of impact, magnetopause standoff distance, and duration of the event to characterize the model performance. A cone model-based halo CME representation is inserted into the combined models. Cone model parameters (initial CME radial velocity and 3 angles defining cone geometry) are used as input to the ENLIL model. We analyze the dependence of the modeling results to the uncertainty in this parameters and establish error bars for the model estimates.

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