Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa51a1549l&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA51A-1549
Mathematics
Logic
7934 Impacts On Technological Systems, 7938 Impacts On Humans, 7944 Ionospheric Effects On Radio Waves, 7959 Models, 7974 Solar Effects
Scientific paper
Forecasting the state of the magnetosphere is currently limited to lead times of the order of 30 minutes when data from a L1 monitor are used. In order to improve the forecast window we use ENLIL, an established heliosphere model, to first predict the solar wind state immediately upstream of Earth. The predicted solar wind and magnetic field are then used to drive the OpenGGCM magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere model. With this combination the magnetosphere state, for example ionosphere currents and magnetosphere particle fluxes, can be forecast up to two days in advance. In this presentation we investigate the accuracy of such predictions and we discuss the prospects for continuous magnetosphere ensemble forecasts utilizing novel fast hardware such as the Cell based PS3 game consoles with appropriately optimized model software.
Germaschewski Kai
Larson David J.
Odstrcil Dusan
Raeder Joachim
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