Computer Science
Scientific paper
May 1997
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997icar..127...33r&link_type=abstract
Icarus, Volume 127, Issue 1, pp. 33-54.
Computer Science
24
Scientific paper
We predict the orbital distribution of Earth-approaching asteroids with diameter, d, ranging from 10 m to 10 km, assuming they originate as the fragments of main-belt asteroids. The calculation uses Opik theory to account for the effects of close encounters with the planets and analytic theory to account for the effects of the nu_6 secular resonance and the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter. We use corrections to the Opik formulas to account for long-range encounters with Jupiter, outside the Jovian sphere of influence. We also model the ongoing effects of fragmentation, subsequent to the initial, collisional events that eject parent fragments from the main belt. Biasing our predicted orbital distributions to account for the selection effects of the Spacewatch search, and comparing these biased distributions to the orbits of the Earth approachers detected by Spacewatch, we find that we are able to predict the total number and distribution of orbits for kilometer-sized Earth approachers of moderate inclination, but we do not predict the observed concentration of low-eccentricity orbits among the small Earth approachers (SEAs) with d < ~50 m. We therefore conclude that main-belt asteroids are a sufficient source for kilometer-sized Earth approachers, but not for the SEAs. It is plausible that a significant fraction of the SEAs (greater than 5%) are not of main-belt origin.
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