Statistical Prediction of Solar Flares Using Magnetic Field Data: A Status Report

Details Statistical Prediction of Solar Flares Using Magnetic Field Data: A Status Report Statistical Prediction of Solar Flares Using Magnetic Field Data: A Status Report

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa51a1535l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA51A-1535

Statistics

7519 Flares, 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7529 Photosphere, 7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

The energy to power solar flares is undoubtedly stored in the concentrated magnetic field structures of solar active region atmospheres. Exactly how to make use of observations of the solar magnetic field for predicting the occurrence of solar energetic events is, however, a great challenge. Building upon our prior work of "daily" forecasts using a dataset of photospheric magnetic vector field maps, we examine here questions of forecasting ability in light of data source and the target temporal window. We will discuss the benefits and problems of relying upon line-of-sight magnetic field data (vs. vector photospheric magnetic field maps). In addition, we begin to examine changes in forecasting ability, as measured by standard validation statistics, that result from considering different forecasting windows.

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