Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmpa13a1340k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #PA13A-1340
Mathematics
Logic
6349 General Or Miscellaneous, 6620 Science Policy (0485), 6699 General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
Geophysicists, earth scientists, and other natural scientists play a key role in studying disasters, and are challenged to convey the science to the public and policy makers (including government and business). I have found it useful to introduce the concept of two general types of disasters to these audiences: natural and stealth. Natural disasters are geological phenomena over which we humans have some, but relatively little, control. Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and volcanic eruptions are the most familiar examples, but exogenous events such as meteorite impacts, solar flares, and supernovae are also possibly disruptive. Natural disasters typically have an abrupt onset, cause immediate major change, are familiar from the historic record, and get much media and public attention. They cannot be prevented, but preplanning can ameliorate their effects. Natural disasters are increasingly amplified by us (humans), and we are increasingly affected by them due to our expanding presence on the planet. Less familiar disasters are unfolding in the near-term, but they are not happening in the minds of most people. They are approaching us stealthily, and for this reason I propose that we call them stealth disasters. They differ from natural disasters in several important ways: stealth disasters are primarily caused by, or driven by, the interaction of humans with complex cycles of processes on the planet. Examples are: fresh water shortages and contamination, soil degradation and loss, climate changes, ocean degradation. The onset of stealth disasters is incremental rather than abrupt. They may not unfold significantly during the course of one term of political office, but they are unfolding in our lifetime. We as individuals may or may not escape their consequences, but they will affect our children and grandchildren. If humans are familiar with stealth disasters at all, it is from a relatively local experience, e.g., flooding of the Mississippi or the Dust Bowl in the U.S., or their counterparts in other places globally. Knowledge of stealth disasters is not universal at the scale now required for global attention. Pre-planning can allay the impacts of stealth disasters, or possibly even prevent them. It is imperative that a new Congress and new Administration be informed of the need to respond to both the near-term natural disasters, and to immediately institute thoughtful planning to ally or prevent the stealth disasters.
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