Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.u24a..03r&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U24A-03
Mathematics
Logic
1829 Groundwater Hydrology, 1880 Water Management (6334), 6304 Benefit-Cost Analysis, 6309 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Scientific paper
Catastrophic events, such as earthquakes or floods, can result in water-supply disruptions. Such disruptions can cause large economic losses and pose threats to public health. Water managers seek to develop cost- effective strategies for reducing these risks and ensuring water security. In many areas, ground water can play an important role in such water-supply emergency planning. We present a probabilistic framework for estimating the hydraulic impacts and associated costs of using ground water as a backup supply in the event of a disruption in imported-water deliveries. We also estimate the benefits of ground-water management strategies, such as artificial recharge, in terms of reduced costs of responding to water-supply emergencies. The magnitude of these benefits will depend on the expected severity and duration of the imported-water disruption, the functioning of the hydrogeologic system, and economic parameters. We apply the framework to address water-supply emergency planning in the Los Angeles area. A simulation model is used to generate response functions, which relate emergency ground-water pumpage to potential adverse effects, such as increased pumping lifts, subsidence, and seawater intrusion. These response functions are incorporated into a Monte Carlo analysis, along with cost coefficients and information on the probable severity of the disruption. Disruption severity is represented by a probability distribution, which can be elicited from water managers. In the example, the primary emergency-related benefits of artificial recharge are reductions in potential subsidence costs. The framework could be extended to consider additional engineering factors (e.g., well capacities and integrity of local distribution systems), institutional arrangements, and regulatory requirements.
Hermans C.
Li Zaidong
Reichard E. G.
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