Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation

Details Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation

Feb 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998aj....115..848n&link_type=abstract

Astronomical Journal, vol. 11, p. 848

Mathematics

Probability

6

Comets, Collisions, Probability Theory, Celestial Mechanics, State Estimation, Digital Simulation

Scientific paper

Orbits of 228 known periodic comets were numerically integrated over 30,000 yr, and thereby mean collision rates (CRs) of those comets with the planets from Venus through Neptune were calculated. For Venus through Mars, past calculations of CRs by analytic methods such as Opik's (1951) are shown to overestimate by factors of 20 45, whereas for the outer planets agreement between numerical and analytic estimates is fairly good. This is because analytic methods calculate CRs of comets as if they occupied their current orbits for an unlimited period of time, while in actuality observable periodic comets stay in the inner planetary regions for much shorter durations than the orbital evolution timescale of periodic comets. It is argued that, assuming a steady state population, the ratio between analytic and numerical estimates of collision rates for periodic comets with the terrestrial planets should be approximately equal to the ratio of observable to unobservable comets. Implications of our CRs for impact frequencies on the terrestrial and outer planets are also briefly discussed. In particular, we show that, for Jupiter-interacting comets of greater than 1 km diameter, a Jupiter impact takes place every 500-1000 yr, and an Earth impact every 2-4 Myr.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Collisional probability of periodic comets with the terrestrial planets - an invalid case of analytic formulation will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1222901