Sunspot Cycle 24 Ascent To Peak Activity

Details Sunspot Cycle 24 Ascent To Peak Activity Sunspot Cycle 24 Ascent To Peak Activity

May 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011spd....42.1742a&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #42, #17.42; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

Sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity for cycle 24; we note that there was a significant change in the behavior of sun during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our solar activity forecasting technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 activity parameters; it will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate about the implications of this outcome on the future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic-political consequences.

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