Predicting Wolf's sunspot numbers with and without the assumption of periodicity

Details Predicting Wolf's sunspot numbers with and without the assumption of periodicity Predicting Wolf's sunspot numbers with and without the assumption of periodicity

Jul 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992apj...393..795c&link_type=abstract

Astrophysical Journal, Part 1 (ISSN 0004-637X), vol. 393, no. 2, July 10, 1992, p. 795-799.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

3

Periodic Variations, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity, Sunspots, Error Analysis, Kernel Functions, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

This paper provides an alternative model to the Box Jenkins time series for forecasting sunspot numbers. Both periodic and nonperiodic models are considered. The purpose is to find a model which will give both direction and magnitude of the large changes in sunspot numbers but which also gives error terms comparable to those of the Box-Jenkins techniques. The statistical technique of nonparametric density estimation is used to develop these models.

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