The fuzzy forecast of activity of solar active regions

Details The fuzzy forecast of activity of solar active regions The fuzzy forecast of activity of solar active regions

Jun 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002pabei..20..122z&link_type=abstract

Progress in Astronomy (ISSN 1000-8349), Vol. 20, No. 2, p. 122 - 129 (2002)

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Fuzzy Forecast, Solar Active Regions, Sunspots, Solar Flares

Scientific paper

In this paper, the theory and method of fuzzy mathematics are applied to forecast the activity of solar active region. According to the correlation between the flares and the characteristic factors of the sunspot groups, the membership functions are constructed to comprehensively evaluate and predict the activity of solar active regions. The precise results were obtained by data reduction and analysis with the accuracy higher than 95% after comparing with observations. An applicable software of the data reduction is successfully compiled for the solar activity prediction. Thus, when the values of characteristic factors of the sunspot groups are inputted into the computer, the predicting results of the activity of solar active regions are instantly obtained. Forecast results indicate that the method of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a good one for the solar activity prediction.

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