Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
May 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004aas...204.9804l&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society Meeting 204, #98.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 36, p.984
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
Scientific paper
In order to estimate the size and timing of the maximum amplitude for the forthcoming solar cycle 24, a statistical method is proposed at present study. The results obtained show that if cycle 23 is a short-period cycle, cycle 24 should start in December 2006 (± 1.8 months), reach maximum in March 2011 (± 8.9 months) with the maximum amplitude of 189.9± 15.5, if cycle 24 is a fast rising cycle, or of 135.9± 15.4, if cycle 24 is a slow rising cycle. Or, if cycle 23 is a long-period cycle, cycle 24 should start in June 2008 (± 1.7 months), reach maximum in February 2013 (± 8.1 months), with the maximum amplitude of 137.2± 15.5, if cycle 24 is a fast rising cycle, or of 80.3± 15.4, if cycle 24 is a slow rising cycle. it is inferred that cycle 23 should possibly be a short-period cycle.
Li Kai-Jun
Wang Hai-Min
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