Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude for Solar Cycle 24

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

In order to estimate the size and timing of the maximum amplitude for the forthcoming solar cycle 24, a statistical method is proposed at present study. The results obtained show that if cycle 23 is a short-period cycle, cycle 24 should start in December 2006 (± 1.8 months), reach maximum in March 2011 (± 8.9 months) with the maximum amplitude of 189.9± 15.5, if cycle 24 is a fast rising cycle, or of 135.9± 15.4, if cycle 24 is a slow rising cycle. Or, if cycle 23 is a long-period cycle, cycle 24 should start in June 2008 (± 1.7 months), reach maximum in February 2013 (± 8.1 months), with the maximum amplitude of 137.2± 15.5, if cycle 24 is a fast rising cycle, or of 80.3± 15.4, if cycle 24 is a slow rising cycle. it is inferred that cycle 23 should possibly be a short-period cycle.

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