Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool

Details Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool

Mar 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3305102d&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 5, CiteID L05102

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

91

Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Activity Cycle (2162), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Stellar Interiors And Dynamo Theory, Space Weather: Solar Effects

Scientific paper

We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30-50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast' the relative peaks of cycles 16-23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles.

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