An Automatic Earth-Asteroid Collision Monitoring System

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

A fully automatic system to monitor the known near-Earth asteroid populaton for potential collisions with Earth has been operating at the University of Pisa since November 1999. The system, known as CLOMON, maintains a prioritized queue of objects to be processed, where the prioritization in the queue is based on a score that attempts to quantify the likelihood of finding a collision solution. This score is based on the nominal MOID, the positional uncertainty at some far future epoch, and the amount that the uncertainty has been reduced by additional observations since the last analysis. The queue is updated and re-sorted daily with the most recently published observational and discovery information. When an object reaches the head of the queue CLOMON searches for orbits which are both compatible with the available observations and lead to collision with Earth. The system automatically sends an email notification in the event that a threatening encounter is discovered. CLOMON identified its first potential impactor on February 7, 2000 when the asteroid 2000 BF19 was found to have a potential Earth collision in August 2022 with a probability of approximately 10-6. This case will be summarized, and the current protocol for announcing potential collision solutions will be described.

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