A Note on Poisson inference and extrapolations under low raw data and short interval observation conditions

Details A Note on Poisson inference and extrapolations under low raw data and short interval observation conditions A Note on Poisson inference and extrapolations under low raw data and short interval observation conditions

Feb 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011jimo...39...14b&link_type=abstract

WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, vol. 39, no. 1, p. 14-19

Mathematics

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Scientific paper

To obtain ZHRs under very short observation periods and/or poor observing conditions, meteor counts must be significantly magnified. However, using a large correction factor can lead to substantially uncertain ZHRs. This paper examines the statistical uncertainty that results when large correction factors are applied to poor data. The Poisson distribution used in ZHR calculations is reviewed, concentrating on its significant skew under low raw data conditions. Real structural, asymmetric differences in probability densities between high certainty/high ZHRs and low certainty/high projected ZHRs are shown to exist for the same reported ZHR.

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