Implications of Extended Solar Minima

Details Implications of Extended Solar Minima Implications of Extended Solar Minima

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1109a&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #11.09; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.826

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Scientific paper

Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22-year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.

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