Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 1992
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992aas...181.6810h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, 181st AAS Meeting, #68.10; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 24, p.1229
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
We investigate the geometry concerning the photometric method of extrasolar planet detection, i.e., the detection of dimunition of a parent star's brightness during a planetary transit. Under the assumption that planets will orbit within +/- 10deg of a star's equatorial plane, Monte Carlo simulations suggest that for a given star observed at an inclination of exactly 90deg , the probability of at least one Earth-sized or larger planet being suitably placed for transits is approximately 24%. This probability drops to 14% for a star observed at an inclination of 80deg . Thus, if one can select 30 stars with a pre-determined inclination >= 80deg , the probability of at least one planet being suitably configured for transit events is 99%. The photometic method also allows for testing whether or not planets can exist within binary systems. This can be done by selecting binary systems observed at high orbital inclinations, both eclipsing binaries and wider visual binaries. For a ``real-world'' example, we look at the alpha Centauri system i = 79fdg2 . If we assume that the equatorial planes of both components coincide with the system's orbital plane, Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the probability of at least one planet (of either component) being suitably configured for transits is 14%. In conclusion, we present a non-exhaustive list of solar-type stars, both single and within binary systems, which exhibit a high equatorial inclination. These objects may be considered as preliminary candidates for planetary searches via the photometric method.
Doyle Laurance R.
Hale Alan
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