Prediction of Solar Flares from a Statistical Analysis of Events during Solar Cycle 23

Details Prediction of Solar Flares from a Statistical Analysis of Events during Solar Cycle 23 Prediction of Solar Flares from a Statistical Analysis of Events during Solar Cycle 23

2008-11-14

arxiv.org/abs/0811.2272v1

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

11 pages, 5 figures. submitted to ApJ Letters

Scientific paper

Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of 13.2 and 26.4 months in this cycle by wavelet analysis. On the other hand, active regions of specific magnetic configurations and their evolutions give high productivity of C class flares but relatively low productivity of energetic (M and X class) flares. Furthermore, by considering the measurable kinetic features of active regions, i.e., the rotation of the sunspots, some active regions of specified types are observed to have high energetic flare productivity, above 66%. The periodicity of the activity revealed can be used for medium-term C and M class flare forecasting and the high productivity of active regions forms the basis for short-term prediction of individual energetic flares.

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