Statistical initial orbit determination

Details Statistical initial orbit determination Statistical initial orbit determination

Feb 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992jspro..29..117t&link_type=abstract

Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets (ISSN 0022-4650), vol. 29, Jan.-Feb. 1992, p. 117-122.

Computer Science

Ballistic Missiles, Orbit Calculation, Space Weapons, Statistical Analysis, Ascent Trajectories, Missile Tracking, Monte Carlo Method, Orbital Elements

Scientific paper

For the ballistic missile initial orbit determination problem in particular, the concept of 'launch folders' is extended. This allows to decouple the observational data from the initial orbit determination problem per se. The observational data is only used to select among the possible orbital element sets in the group of folders. Monte Carlo simulations using up to 7200 orbital element sets are described. The results are compared to the true orbital element set and the one a good radar would have been able to produce if collocated with the optical sensor. The simplest version of the new method routinely outperforms the radar initial orbital element set by a factor of two in future miss distance. In addition, not only can a differentially corrected orbital element set be produced via this approach - after only two measurements of direction - but also an updated, meaningful, six-dimensional covariance array for it can be calculated. This technique represents a significant advance in initial orbit determination for this problem, and the concept can easily be extended to minor planets and artificial satellites.

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