Statistics – Computation
Scientific paper
Feb 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994georl..21..313s&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276), vol. 21, no. 4, p. 313-315
Statistics
Computation
2
California, Earthquakes, Estimates, Geophysics, Poisson Density Functions, Probability Theory, San Andreas Fault, Stochastic Processes, Bayes Theorem, Computation, Confidence, Graphs (Charts), Tables (Data)
Scientific paper
Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% +/- 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred off of the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% +/- 27% (95% confidence interval).
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