WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Details WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

2009-06-30

arxiv.org/abs/0906.5550v2

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

4 pages, 4 figures

Scientific paper

Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a
population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to
determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out and to
evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like
orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.

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